A.Caruso P+R+A Over 14.5 -In my opinion, this is a really low threshold for Alex, who is almost automated to exceed THIS line in matches without LaVine and with 23+ minutes on the court. In such games, he has exceeded this line in 23 of the last 25 instances, averaging 18.2 PRA points. I believe that the opponent, for his standards, is almost ideal. Sacramento often plays a mixed defense, depending on the course of the game, frequently opting to blitz the opposing team's primary defense and send a trap, then sometimes switch to a zone. Regardless, their defense breaks down in C&S (Catch & Shoot) and SU (Spot Up) situations, allowing the most points in the league from those, at 4/30! Similar players, who derive a large percentage of their points from SU situations, have had very good scoring games against SAC. According to @PROPSMADNESS, 10 out of 15 such players have exceeded their season average: Conley 14 & 12, Vassell 32, Gordon 23, Burks 25 & 16, Richardson 24, Bogdanovic 18... In the last match of these teams, Caruso finished the game with 7 points but managed to collect 11 RA points, ending with 18 PRA points. He's hardworking, present in every part of the field, and I think we shouldn't have any problems with this bet. J.Harden 16.5 Over -This will be the second back-to-back game for the Clippers, and as Lue himself stated, George SHOULD NOT be playing tonight, I'm just waiting for official confirmation. In that case, we would have a CLV (Closing Line Value) of 3-4 points, because without PG against such an opponent, JH would be at 19.5-20.5. He will be defended by Beasley + drop-coverage Lopez. Even though this is a B2B for Harden, I expect him to cover this line, given he will have a lot of space to maneuver in the offense. The Bucks allow the 2nd most points from PnR situations to opposing BHs, and Harden scores almost 30% of his points this way. Due to Lopez's drop, I expect a lot of taken 3-pt shots by Harden, who scores almost 60% of his points from above-the-break situations. In 7 of the last 10 games, he has gone over this line, and tonight I expect him to be extra motivated since it's well-known that Harden HATES GIANNIS. This rivalry is remembered, in 2 of the last 3 games vs MIL he has scored 31+ points, hoping tonight he will score at least 20+.

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