Mar 5 in General discussion
04/03/2024 (US Time)
A.Caruso P+R+A Over 14.5
-In my opinion, this is a really low threshold for Alex, who is almost automated to exceed THIS line in matches without LaVine and with 23+ minutes on the court. In such games, he has exceeded this line in 23 of the last 25 instances, averaging 18.2 PRA points. I believe that the opponent, for his standards, is almost ideal. Sacramento often plays a mixed defense, depending on the course of the game, frequently opting to blitz the opposing team's primary defense and send a trap, then sometimes switch to a zone. Regardless, their defense breaks down in C&S (Catch & Shoot) and SU (Spot Up) situations, allowing the most points in the league from those, at 4/30! Similar players, who derive a large percentage of their points from SU situations, have had very good scoring games against SAC. According to @PROPSMADNESS, 10 out of 15 such players have exceeded their season average: Conley 14 & 12, Vassell 32, Gordon 23, Burks 25 & 16, Richardson 24, Bogdanovic 18... In the last match of these teams, Caruso finished the game with 7 points but managed to collect 11 RA points, ending with 18 PRA points. He's hardworking, present in every part of the field, and I think we shouldn't have any problems with this bet.
J.Harden 16.5 Over
-This will be the second back-to-back game for the Clippers, and as Lue himself stated, George SHOULD NOT be playing tonight, I'm just waiting for official confirmation. In that case, we would have a CLV (Closing Line Value) of 3-4 points, because without PG against such an opponent, JH would be at 19.5-20.5. He will be defended by Beasley + drop-coverage Lopez. Even though this is a B2B for Harden, I expect him to cover this line, given he will have a lot of space to maneuver in the offense. The Bucks allow the 2nd most points from PnR situations to opposing BHs, and Harden scores almost 30% of his points this way. Due to Lopez's drop, I expect a lot of taken 3-pt shots by Harden, who scores almost 60% of his points from above-the-break situations. In 7 of the last 10 games, he has gone over this line, and tonight I expect him to be extra motivated since it's well-known that Harden HATES GIANNIS. This rivalry is remembered, in 2 of the last 3 games vs MIL he has scored 31+ points, hoping tonight he will score at least 20+.
DeMar DeRozan 22.5 Over
We already have Caruso from Chicago but I think this does not affect DeMar much since Caruso is a dust collector and DeMar will have his uSGR assured so these bets do not affect each other. DeRozan had a very bad last game and only scored 12 points but against a very tough opponent and had a very tough matchup with Milwaukee so it was somewhat expected. Tonight he will have a much easier task against the Bulls and I have no doubt he will try harder in this match since such poor performances are not characteristic of him. Excluding that last match, he has surpassed this limit 9 times in the last ten games and only stayed below this limit against Boston, who are also a top defensive team, with 19 points. During that interval, there was a match against the Kings where he scored 24 points with not the best percentages but had as many as 15 free throws which shows that the Kings did not have a solution for him. DeMar plays around 40 minutes in close matches so I hope the Bulls will stay long enough in the match for him to get his minutes and in that case, I see him over this limit. Good luck
T.Hendricks 6.5 REB Over
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Hendricks lately has been getting minutes and it can be said he plays consistently well since he joined the starting lineup. Since he’s been in the lineup, he’s played at least 26 minutes every game and on this limit, he’s gone over four times with rebounds while falling below just once. His first game as a starter was against the Warriors where he grabbed 9 rebounds, followed by a weaker game against the Spurs with only 3 rebounds but then against the Hawks, he caught 8 rebounds and against the Magic 7, with the last game being his best rebounding performance against the Heat with 13 caught balls. However, the biggest reason I'm playing this bet tonight is the absence of Markkanen, which might allow Hendricks to possibly get over 30 minutes, thereby giving this bet even more value. In addition to Markkanen, there's also no Kesler, so the rebounding duty will primarily fall on Collins and our pick for tonight. The opponent is also favorable, allowing the most team rebounds to opposing teams, which is another factor that works in our favor. All in all, in my opinion, this is a very likely bet. Good luck.
J. Collins 17.5 Over
At first glance, this seems like a high limit, the highest of this season, but considering that two tall players from Utah are out tonight, Kesler for some time and Markkanen as the team's biggest consumer, it's clear as day that Collins is expected to have a big night, or at least he should, since I expect him on the field for 35+ minutes playing both the 4 and 5 positions, as he can cover both. It can be said he also has a good matchup, as Washington does not look good at all, being the worst team in the league in many parameters, both in overall score and in defending opposing players, especially at the C position where they allow nearly 26 points on average, only San Antonio is worse. They allow almost 125 points per 100 possessions on average, absolutely unable to defend anything. Collins is not a traditional big man, he's extremely agile, an athlete who does not rely on in-paint play, as he often plays in PnP, where he gets open shots for 3 points and also pulls out to perimeter positions and can definitely hit. After the trade of Gafford, Washington looks even worse at the C position and literally everything supports this tip. Someone will have to make up for Markkanen's shots, someone will have to fill his minutes, Collins seems ideal. In 3 of the last 4 games, he has gone over this limit, and Markannen was playing.
C. Johnson 16.5 Over
Simply put, we'll stick with this tip as long as Thomas is out or until the tip fails, because everything has opened up for him on the court. Thomas has been out for a few games, and in his absence, Johnson has been playing excellently. In the last 2 games, he's averaged 26 points (23 and 29pt), 30 minutes on average, 13 shots on average. It could have been more, but there was a blowout and he sat out a part of the game. Memphis is on paper, and actually, a worse team than Atlanta, literally playing with their third team due to a large number of injuries and just looking to finish the regular season, you could say they're not trying that hard on the court, as the results show. The limit is only a point higher than the last game, so I believe he can respect us tonight, as I expect an efficient game, with a high score and Johnson being just as active in the offense as the previous game.
D. Ayton 16.5 Under
Although he had 2 different games within just 2 days against Minnesota, where he played the worst and the best game of this season, I have to go with this proposal. By many parameters, Minnesota is one of the best teams in the league, especially at the center position where Gobert is unrivaled, especially against players who live off points from the paint, or who rely on under-the-basket play, and that's exactly Ayton's type, who takes most of his shots under the hoop or 2m from the hoop, and Gobert rarely comes out of the paint, so it will be very difficult for him to get his points over him. Likewise, in PnR play, there's not so much switching, Gobert retreats a lot into the paint and defends that pick well, where he can prevent Ayton from getting easy points. Along with him and Towns at the four, opponents find it very hard to get offensive rebounds and convert them into points.
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04/03/2024 (US Time)
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