What's up everyone, was chatting with @Amr Khalifeh this morning about Product Intuition and he came up with a great idea for the community. So let me introduce you to... Product Bets! What's Product Bets? Every few months I'll start a thread where we can all share our bets on some of the more buzzy products that have made their way into the world. In the thread we'll share where we think they'll be in six months time. Then, in six months we'll hop on a call (it's already in the calendar!) and review how we all did! Why? Because we're all cast judgement on products, telling others how we think things'll play out, and this is an opportunity to reflect on if you were right or not! I think this is a great opportunity to see how well tuned our Intuition for space really is, and to improve it again in the future. This round's products will be: - The Rabbit R1 - Apple's Vision Pro - ONCE - Campfire I'll get us started 👇 _____ Rabbit R1: I think the Rabbit R1 will have a strong niche group of enthusiasts, and there'll be a lot of cool use cases for the little device, the over-riding sentiment will still be 'why isn't this an app?'. There's a good chance that Google will release a competitor that does everything the R1 does but is native to Android, and I wouldn't be surprised if they've been acquired by a large tech company six months from now. Apple Vision Pro: I think in six months time, it'll be way too soon to see if the Vision Pro has got any broad market appeal. It's going to continue being heavily meme'd on, as it rolls out in Europe, skepticism will reach a fever pitch and we'll see plenty of people calling the Vision Pro a failure. By this time we'll have seen at least a couple of really compelling use-cases for the technology, but most people still won't have had the chance to try it yet. ONCE - Campfire: Six months from now I think we'll have a clearer picture on if this is actually an applicable solution for product companies. We'll have a solid understanding of the economics and practicalities of rolling this service out. Because it's 37signals it'll probably have a small but highly enthusiastic group of users.

You've probably already heard me talking about this, but the first ONCE product from 37signal is available now, it's called Campfire. The idea is that instead of paying for Slack forever, you pay for this once, I really hope more of these types of products take off. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GAzRUbE1AAw

I fucking love Valve. I love that they kind figured out their cash-cow with Steam and then proceeded to just take as long as they like tinkering on new things like the Valve Index, The Steam Deck, Portal etc etc. I don't know any other provate company in the world that is as big, influential but also as weird as Valve. They really just seem to do their own thing without any pressure from the outside world. I don't care if their famous handbook from years ago was more of a hiring stunt, there's something about companies like Valve, and I guess Teenage Engineering that I love. That's actually all I have to say while waiting for my Steam Deck OLED to arrive :D