Pokemon 151 UPC - Another Charizard UPC situation?
Last year we had the craze around the Charizard UPC. Pre-orders were going for €150, €200, €250 or even more.
Then it came out, and Pokemon showed it had taken a different approach than with the Celebrations UPC. They printed, and printed, and printed.... and printed.
Quickly the price dropped to €100 on cardmarket, which in my understanding is way below MSRP.
Today (almost a year after release) it's still available for €100 😂
Now back to the Mew Pokemon 151 UPC. I see a similar scenario playing out.
It's already being sold below MSRP (for €120) on Cardmarket and it JUST released.
I mean the demand for 151 is insane, the product is amazing, but still... below MSRP within a couple days after release.
I wouldn't be surprised if it dropped below €100 very soon.
What can we learn from this?
The Pokémon Company International has stepped up their game in adding more supply to deal with the insane demand. This is a good thing, now we can all get product more easily and enjoy the amazing cards they are releasing currently. This is also the role modern products play in the eco system of Pokemon. They are supposed to be readily available, get people engaged and into the hobby.
The lesson Investing wise, is for me that it's not as simple as buying a UPC on pre-order and waiting for the value to go to the moon.
The balance of supply and demand in English modern Pokemon has shifted from insane demand and low supply, to insane demand and insane amounts of supply 😅
All in all I do like developments like this. This is when the real collectors/investors that love Pokemon get to thinking and shift their approach/strategies and when the easy scalpers drop off cause theres no more easy money to be made.
For me personally I will be taking advise and looking more towards sealed products that have a bigger barrier to entry to get them, the upcoming Japanese classic collection being an example of that.
Just some thoughts I wanted to share.
Let me know what you guys think!
Interesting point!
Disagree, English 151 to the moon
13 votes
2
9 comments
• Oct '23 (edited)
Certainly can’t hurt to wait some time before picking up a set. Feels a bit like 2016 again, where the break cards were (and are 😛) disliked similar to the tera cards now. And the supply meets (and probably exceeds) demand.
2
• Oct '23
My feeling (especially for jap. Boxes) is: there is hype, then not enough initial supply which drives prices too high, then comes one wave of sufficient supply which drains the market and crashes the prices... And most of the time, there are only homœopathic reprints afterwards. I've seen this with vstar universe, ruler of black flame, 151jap. ... The english seem to have better overall supply, hence the market saturation phase is way longer. If you want more price action check out German products. They seem to often have only one print run and go up in value faster than english ones is my impression.
2
• Nov '23
I have the same impression with the products in Spanish. They are more expensive than in English and sell out quickly. I haven't started 151 in Spanish yet because each box is at least €10 more than in English and they sell out as they come out. I think they are much shorter runs than the demand there is, however on Amazon you have, for example, all tboxes you want in Italian.
0
• Nov '23
It is a relief not to have to fight to buy at the official prices, celebrations for example was a hell. It was embarrassing that stores speculated on prices and you would find packs €30 more expensive than their official price even before its release.
With charizard upc I waited and was able to buy it at its official price, and then it continued to drop the price. Mew UPC probably too.
2
• Nov '23
Yea, it's nice to have enough supply to just enjoy products without stress of missing out or paying way too much
1
• Nov '23
I believe it will be in between charizard and celebration, if they did not provide a huge reprint wave. When I look at the quantity available on Cdmkt, it's way lesss than the quantity of charizard UPC availables last year (1/3 less, maybe more), and quite close to the quantity of Charizard UPC available now. It might not drop much more.
2
• Oct '23 (edited)
Good post and I think you have a solid point. Just goes to show that however popular something is, if the supply is increased so much that demand can't keep up, value stagnates, or even decreases cause the people who bought it only to make money fast by flipping get nervous and sell quickly to reduce losses.
Like you said this can turn out good and reduce scalpers as there's not as much in it for them as there used to be to make a quick return. That's why I love focussing on the long term!
1
• Nov '23
I thought about it several times and I don't know, that's why I didn't pre-order, I bought it for 110 4pcs and I'm waiting. If in this case it will be similar to Charizard, we will definitely have some picture of the future. However, in total, these are two different sets that are difficult to compare in Charizard, apart from the 3 cards, there is nothing specific, where in the case of 151 we have a completely new series and the box is only for this series, as in the case of Celebration.
Looking at the Japanese version, it may be similar with the English version.
And even after reprints, there are series that have returned to their pre-reprint prices. it was a terrible fall for charizard
1
• Nov '23
Yes true, the charizard UPC had a variety of packs from previous sets and this 151 UPC only from 151. But I think more importantly what needs to be understood is that the Pokemon Company International has a marketing plan behind 151. It's to get as many people as possible back into collecting Pokemon cards and to grow their client base. 151 hits people in the feels cause of nostalgia, and then gets them deeper into the hobby and previous sets. Cause of this reason, I think The Pokemon Company will do everything they can to have this product available on store shelves everywhere at all times, why? Cause people that don't collect Pokemon cards right now have to run into this product during their day, that's how they get introduced into Pokemon again, by random accident. So because of English 151 being a re-engage set, I think we will see a huge supply for the coming year at least. If Pokemon prints too much they still make money on the other products people buy once they get back into collecting through 151.
2
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Pokemon 151 UPC - Another Charizard UPC situation?
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